If you listen to the global warming alarmists and the general news of Google and other social media you may have heard that this summer is unbelievably hot and was historic. Numerous politicians around the globe referred to it as proof that global warming hysteria is valid.
The facts are of course the opposite. The record above is from satellites. It shows that we had a jump in temperatures in 2015. This is called an El Nino. Listening to the news you would think such things never occurred before now. In fact, El Nino’s and La Nina’s have been detected in the temperature record going back at least 250 to 500 years.
The temperature as you can see from the chart above is not extraordinary in the last few months. It is in fact well below the peaks of the 2015 El Nino. In fact, there is a trend not unlike the trend of all other El Nino’s you can see in the above chart back to normal.
La Nina’s and El Nino’s are reverse images of each other. One corresponds to a heat buildup in the pacific and the other to a cooling. This heat spreads across the globe and produces excess rainfall in some areas and other effects in other areas.
We’ve only known about these things for 30 years or so. 1998 had a large El Nino and it was followed by several La Nina’s. The following 17 years after 1998 until 2015 are what is called the pause. From this period to 2015 temperatures worldwide fluctuated but didn’t go up on average at all. Scientists never explained this and if you look up “climate pause” on Google you will find nothing but disclaimers that there is no such thing as a pause.
If you look at this graph between those years you can easily see the pause. Seeing is believing. It is not a fantasy. During 1998 and 2014 the CO2 levels climbed dramatically and more CO2 was put in the atmosphere than all the previous years of man’s existence. Yet the temperature didn’t budge. Instead in 2015 a natural phenomenon called an El Nino occurred which boosted temperatures for a couple years. Where it will go from here we don’t entirely know.
There is an upward trend over the 40 years
You may see an overall movement upward in the graph above. That is true. There is a roughly 0.35C temperature increase between 1979 and 2018. The reason for this temperature increase is in dispute but some of it is probably related to CO2. However, you can see CO2 doesn’t dominate the temperature record. On any year numerous things can dominate over CO2 because we know that CO2 is monotonically increasing with small variation during the year there is a small overall increase that might be attritable to CO2.
It’s important to note that Climate alarmists are trying to tell you that the 40 year period above is going to go from 0.35C change to 3.5C change in 80 more years. Which means the rate of change of temperature has to accelerate massively to get to 3.5C. Temperatures have to start going up every year by massive amounts and continue for 80 years unabated to get to 3C change or anywhere near that.
Hanson the creator of global warming catastrophe theory said that within a short period of time temperatures should rise up to 8C. That didn’t happen. Computer models came out that showed temperatures should go up by 3-6C in the next century but in half the time we’ve gotten less than 1/10th what they predict.
Yes, the temperature is warmer than anytime in the last 40 years over the last few years
When you have a trend it is inevitable that the latest data will show higher or lower depending on the trend. The key thing is that the slope of the trend must match the theory or something is wrong. In science when something is wrong it doesn’t mean the theory must be partially correct. It means it’s wrong. That means until proven otherwise we don’t actually know what will happen to temperature. The fact that things have gone along a trend does not mean the theory is bolstered.
The theory is falsified which means anything could happen. Temperatures could be lower than today in 2100 for all we know. There are too many variables and unknowns to make a prediction.
Your gut feeling may be that the existence of the trend means that things will continue going up. You may be right but nature has a way of surprising us.
When you look on a longer time period that 40 years but include 140 years of records you see a wobbling but still upward trend. The wobbles are significant with the 30 year period before 1979 showing a downward movement of about 0.1-0.2C. In other words in spite of massive input of co2 for 30 years between 1949-1979 temperatures went down not up. What happened to the energy created by CO2? There are many theories. But clearly CO2 doesn’t dominate other factors and we still don’t know the relative contribution of factors such as albedo, aerosols(pollution), humidity trends, ocean trends, sun trends and other things we don’t understand.
When you look over a period of 1000 years you see an up and down pattern with temperatures 1000 years ago approaching today’s in some analyses. It is impossible to know for sure because the way we measure temperature 1000 years ago is through arctic ice cores and looking at oxygen isotope concentrations in bubbles in crustaceans in the ocean. Today we use satellites. We don’t know if we had access to hundreds of thousands of data points 1000 years ago that temperatures then wouldn’t be similar to today exactly or even higher.
This is the state of things. We are still quite early in understanding the climate.
What is clear is that the alarmist representation that temperatures would soar by 4C or 8C from the CO2 we are putting in never are going to happen. We see no evidence that temperatures are reacting to CO2 in such a distinct and powerful way. They are reacting to El Nino’s and La nina’s much more reliably and those phenomenon we don’t know the exact reason for even though they have such a large impact on our climate. That is very telling.
We don’t know why El Nino’s occur or La Nina’s and we can’t predict them reliably. Such a large phenomenon and not being able to determine why it is happening should give you a clue how clueless we are.
How could so much energy representing in a single year such as 2015 or in 1998 more than the entire temperature change of 80 years of co2 output and we have no idea how it happens, where the energy comes from fundamentally (other than the ocean) or why.
You have to understand that the ocean is 1000 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere. This means that a 0.001 degree change in the average ocean temperature would produce twice the temperature change in the atmosphere of all the Co2 ever put in by man has.
We can’t even detect 0.001 degree change in the ocean temperature partly because our probes called ARGO which measure the ocean temperatures get to less than half the ocean. Satellites can’t measure ocean temperatures other than the very surface. Almost anything could be happening in the oceans and we would have no clue.
So, given that the oceans could have such an incredible effect on temperature with even the most infinitesimal change we should be suspicious that we know what is causing temperature change in the atmosphere over longer periods.
I have written numerous blogs on this topic. I don’t believe anything I have written has been proven false. Climate Science has not proven itself anymore and the existence of an El Nino in 2015 didn’t validate global warming hysteria.
Quite the contrary. When I took my first global warming class nearly 10 years ago the instructors told me that El Nino’s and La Nino’s would end. CO2 would be so powerful that very soon these phenomenon would be drowned out by the CO2 signal and the effects of these ocean phenomenon would disappear.
In fact the 2015 El Nino was entirely predictable as it turns out and it didn’t disappear. I predicted the 2015 El Nino. How did I do this? I have noticed if you look in the historical record that the phenomenon called AMO and PDO which operate on 60 year cycles have a distinctive pattern. About halfway through the down phase of the PDO we get a big El Nino. This happened in each of the last 2 down phases of the PDO.
I don’t know why a large El Nino would occur but possibly something about the lower temperatures in the ocean eventually builds up to create a large El Nino. In the past the large El Nino dissipates and temperatures keep falling for another 15 years. Under this pattern we will see basically a flat pattern of temperatures till 2030.
After 2030 if the ocean dominates and things go as I expect then temperatures will see a rapid acceleration like the 1979-1998 period above. So, the years 2030 – 2050 will show a 0.3C increase again. Following this trend we will see from 2050-2080 a flat period and then from 2080-2110 we might see another 0.3 increase but this also depends on us using CO2 producing energy sources in 2080. If in the next 65 years we have reduced our dependence on fossil fuels significantly then 0.3C may be all we see and the peak temperature will be in either 2050 or 2110. After that temperatures should drop.
Of course this all depends on some other factors not playing which we don’t know about.
In summary the prospect of massive increase in temperatures of 2 or 3 or 4 C by 2100 is insane and totally unscientific prediction.
So is the idea of massive sea level rise. By 2100 we will see at most another 4 inches of sea level rise. Scientists were predicting 2 feet. Some 6 feet by 2050. They are off by 900% or more. It’s ridiculous. Yet if you look at Google they will say that the pause didn’t exist.
I’m asking you. Just look at the above graph between 1999 and 2014 and see if you think you see a trend. If you do you are wrong. If you pull out the El Nino’s and La Nina’s what kind of graph would you see above? A very slow very moderate line upward that would show at most a couple tenths of a degree change over 40 years.
All the stories and all the Google news you read or searches you do which tell you that global warming hysteria is true are part of a disinformation campaign designed to promote the scientists and technology companies that try to push things they make billions on.