Why a Democratic Wave Looks Likely

The above article in National Review claims the President is the issue in the midterms and as a result people will not vote for Republican candidates for offices.

The rationale for this is not based on any polls or scientific analysis. It is based on issues the writer feels are too disturbing to the public.

I do wonder if many of the people who write things like this have a functioning memory. For 2 1/2 years they have been calling Donald Trump done and fininshed. This week several CNN reporters believe they are one witness away from impeaching President Trump. They have been saying this is the end of Trump every week for the last 2 1/2 years.

From the first debate they said his comments disqualified him and that he would fall. He rose.

Today Donald Trump’s polls are higher than Obama’s. Trump has gained among blacks and hispanics and his base Republicans are 90% behind him. In the meantime liberals are divided and saying things that look insane calling for the end of ICE, open borders, socialism.

The actual statistics are as usual different from what people like this seem to think.

I have a system for determining Presidential outcomes which is extremely reliable. However, midterms are much harder. I really have no idea how you could call this and I don’t believe the National Review or Nancy Pelosi or anyone can really say with assurance there will be this wave or that wave.

The biggest factor in a midterm election is turnout.

This election promises to be nearly as contentious as a presidential election. Both parties are saying this is the most important midterm in a century. It is.

If Donald Trump gains support he will have far more leeway to get things done. Something he thinks we can do and will have lasting value to America and the people. The opponents want to stop Donald and impeach him. They want to stop all progress on his agenda.

The first thing I would tell Democrats is don’t make the same mistakes you did in 2016

1) Don’t assume Donald is going to “give up.” By now you should understand Donald Trump is one of those people who NEVER gives up. After liberal filter bubbles saying 100 times during the election and during his presidency that he will give up I entreat you to give up on him giving up.

2) Don’t lie to yourselves. Don’t pull polls and optimistic numbers out to reassure your insecurities. The polls were grossly wrong in the election. John Podesta told the pollsters how to game them. They gave Hillary a massive landslide and 20% lead in states she lost by 5-10 points. Trump won by 30 and 40 points in some states they thought were dead even 4 weeks before the election. They claimed she won all the debates. Yet the Democrats had a historic loss resulting in losing 900 seats across the country at every level of government including the Presidency. It wasn’t Russia. It wasn’t white supremacists.

Stop believing your social media. Social media is not a significant factor. Hillary had the social media behind her and $2.5 billion to spend on media and she lost. Telling people what to believe, yelling at them and shaming them has NO impact on results. Stop believing your own lies to yourself in your social media.

After all this hate about the separation of children from parents Trumps approval in the hispanic community rose by 10 points. After all the Russia controversey Trumps approval was up 1%. These people think they make a difference but they don’t.

Lying to yourself makes it impossible to win.

3) Stop fixating on Donald Trump. The obsession with Trump is a sickness. Turn off social media and get into video games or something. Get used to the idea you are going to have to live with Donald Trump for 6 1/2 years more and realize the country will survive. It has always survived. We have a constitution designed to keep us safe from dictatorship and it will give you the opportunity again to win an election. Accept that it is possible that you will lose in the midterms and that Donald will get more things done. You will get a chance to change it. It is temporary. Don’t become basket cases again.

The most important thing you could do is to start talking realistic solutions not complaining. Complainers get a lot of airplay but people want solutions and the more you complain the more they want a solution. If you don’t have a solution I think you play into your opposition. Trump has a solution all you have so far are complaints. Destroying ICE is not a solution.

4) Stop inciting violence. Stop saying that everything Donald is doing will result in the end of America. The warnings from Democrats have become daily and yet the country and the world improves on every measure. The constant claims the sky is falling is becoming absurd. I think even your base is over stimulated and getting tired. I think this is the biggest worry for Democrats.

People are sick of the violent rhetoric, the intimidation and shaming is making our society sick. We need to have respect for each other which means stop resorting to yelling and screaming your points and engage in discourse. If you can’t then listen quietly and respectfully and live with the fact that not everyone agrees with you like the rest of us have to do.

Like the 2016 election there is too much uncertainty to know

We don’t know who will turn out the base more.

We don’t know which issues will turn the election.

The National Review article above states that it is:

1) The President’s governance style.

2) Russia and his weak performance with Putin

This is almost 100% the wrong analysis. Nobody cares about Russia. Recent polls showed that Russia was a top concern of less than 1% of the voters.

The top concerns of the voters are according to a Gallup survey here.

The top concerns were first Immigration, then concerns over leadership style then came the divisiveness and lack of respect for people. The economy was down to 14%. N Korea was only 1%.

I total up the issues that clearly are Republican favor: 50%, Democrats 50%. Based on this it might mean no change or a slight move to Democrats.

Another poll is about the direction of the country: 56% now say the country is going in the right direction. This is a change from 76% who said the country is going in the wrong direction in 2016 election.

To me this is the most important poll. It is unlikely if people think that the country is going in the right direction that they would elect people they know will essentially stop that.

Democracy is an iterative process and the way I look at it is that if this poll shows people are unhappy with the direction they will change leadership. If they are happy they will keep in leadership. They will keep switching leadership until they think it is working. That is democracy. We don’t always get the right leader this time but over time we iterate to better answers.

If you don’t fixate over the particular winner or loser but focus on the fact that people are making rational decisions you can deal with loss. I understood the reason Obama won.

No matter if the Republicans lose seats President Trump may win

What we are seeing is that many candidates are aligning with Donald Trump. The NeverTrumpers are leaving the party. At least 44 have declined to even try including people like Flake. This is because Donald Trump has gained 90% support within the Republican Party and this means he has won.

The next set of Republicans who get in will be more loyal and more supportive of Trump’s agenda. This can’t be doubted. We can see this in how the polls for candidates turns on how Trump sees that candidate. Trump can move a candidate up 10 or 20 points in a week based on some comments.

The other thing is that many Democratic candidates have abandoned the Resist movement. Because many states that Democratic members come from were won by 20, 30 or even 40 points by Trump no Democrat can be elected from those states who doesn’t at least give Donald Trump some credit. We are seeing Democrats being elected and being nominated that are saying things supportive of many of Donald’s positions on trade, immigration or other policies.

Even the extreme progressive socialists are not against Trump. Bernie Sanders has said he is NOT on the anti-ICE, open borders campaign. He is for trade tariffs and protections for American workers.

I’m not saying that Bernie supports Donald but I am saying that he isn’t as “resist” as the Pelosis and Schumers.

The New Democratic members will be far less “resist.” It will be far harder for the Democrats to hold their coalition of resist and legislative blockage.

That means no matter what Donald may be able to move legislation through.

No matter if the Democrats gain or lose seats Donald Trump will have more power in the house and senate.

That is the critical thing. Even if Trump loses the house I believe that he will be able to get more done. The more he wins on domestic and foreign policy it will be harder for Democrats to sustain “resist” and the absurd argument he is a danger to the republic.

I wrote a seminal piece on the parties and the flow of issues in our democracy in this piece here.

The Evolution of Democracy in America over the last 37 years

The Democrats are going to go through a transformation. Donald Trump, like Ronald Reagan is leading to a shuffling of the deck on the parties. This is a fairly unique American phenomenon. Our parties shift positions.

Donald Trump is winning on trade and immigration.

These are 2 issues that have been moving in different directions in the parties. The exiting of #NeverTrumpers is a reflection of that shift.

The Republican Party is becoming at least as far as those issues like the Democratic Party of 1980. The Democratic Party is modifying itself to counter this. The Democrats don’t know and I am not sure how they adjust to this entirely but I believe they have to jettison some things.

The parties will adjust to the electorate not the other way around

We still live in a democracy. This means that the will of the majority of people will win. The parties will adjust. Those who lose power will be replaced by people who support the will of the people.

Democrats seem to think they can hold onto positions based on some moral argument. One criticism of democracy has been said which is that people will vote themselves all the money or populism will lead to the dominance of the majority.

The Republicans have staked out their positions and some of these are winning. The Democrats have no choice but to concede defeat on some of them. This will become more and more obvious as Donald wins.

I have written how Donald cannot lose on 8 issues.

These issues are simply stacked massively in his favor. The remarkable thing is that many of them are not political. He will win on trade, N Korea, immigration, Russia and others. I say this not because of political bias but because of factual proof that we are in too strong a bargaining position.

We have $800 billion trade deficit. Nobody can replace the $800 billion the US buys from the rest of the world more than they buy from us. If we start buying that from ourselves then we gain $800 billion in GDP and they lose $800 billion.

They go into recession and we go into overdrive. If they agree to fight us they can’t win. How many times do I have to repeat this? Unless they are just interested in losing on principal of screwing the US they have to bargain. How long will Europe tolerate or China a recession and loss of hundreds of billions in trade? I suggest ZERO days. They will not want to piss off American buyers. They will not want to lose markets to domestic competition. They will negotiate. Trump can’t lose because they have become dependent on us buying their stuff. That is worse than us being dependent on their stuff. There are lots of suppliers and we can build or do almost anything anyone else can. Therefore, there is no possible way they can win.

This means they will have to agree to buy more American products, to lower their trade barriers. This will mean MORE sales of US goods and services. This means more income and jobs for Americans. There is no two ways about it. This is good for Americans.

Maybe you don’t care about Americans. That’s the only way to argue against what Trump is doing. So, this is not political. It is not republican or democrat. This is good for America no matter what your politics. It can’t be argued. It can only be argued if you aren’t an American or work for non-Americans.

The same is true for N Korea and many other things Trump is doing. See my article.

So, Democrats cannot win on these issues. There is no point in them staking out the “free trade” where “free trade” means China and the world get to have the US buy all their crap and they don’t buy our crap and hollow our country. If they want to argue that free trade is better than tariffs that is a position Republicans used to have but it means abandoning the middle class. That is political.

What this means is that the Democrats need to find a way to accomodate these truths I have spoken of just like Bill Clinton accepted the truths of Reagan and low taxes and free trade back in 1990s.