I have said frequently that predicting is very difficult. You can see my blogs on this subject. Nonetheless, I have predicted technology changes and these are unfolding as we speak. Largely these are longer term predictions that have years to go before being proved wrong or right.
I will summarize those in a post sometime in the near future.
However, where I am sorry to say is that my predictions regarding politics have turned out very accurate if not 100% accurate.
1) I said the middle class was hurting and this was a serious problem for Democrats.
2) I said the polls were wrong and hacked
3) I said that Donald Trump would be elected.
4) I said that he was not an evil person who would do any of the things they said
5) I said that blacks and hispanics will do better under Trump
6) I said that the charges of Russia collusion were bogus
7) I said that the Mueller indictments will not go well
8) I said the economy would flourish and that middle class wages would rise under Trump
9) I have said the participation rate will climb
10) I have also said interest rates will rise and the stock market will weaken or stay flat for some time due to rising interest rates
11) That Brennan and Clapper are involved in conspiracy against Trump. That it is likely the Wikileaks emails may have been multiply sourced to Assange.
12) That Comey is a democratic operative and liar
13) That China will cave on trade
14) That Trump will leave Syria and allow Syria to become one state again
15) That the crime rate will fall
16) That the democrats would abandon DACA participants for their longer term interests in chain migration and open borders
17) That Trump would succeed on his tax bill
18) That democrats have brain damage from deceiving themselves
19) That the Global Warming, White Supremacist, Trump is racist, Illegals are great for America, Russia conspiracies would fall apart and be shown as scams created to frighten voters to vote for democrats.
20) The Democrats will not gain control of the house or senate and likely will lose more power in the senate at least.
21) That the reason for this will hinge on fears of chaos by democrats filled with hate and desire to impeach. That illegal immigration will be a major concern that will NOT go in favor of the democrats and that net net gun control will not be in Democrats favor. I believe democrats will gain in states they already control and lose in states they don’t control.
22) That DT will win re-election in 2020.
23) That these deep staters will eventually be prosecuted.
24) Hillary will eventually be proven guilty of pay for play and possible for her email scandal although I think others will be prosecuted for malfeasance in the investigation of her case eventually.
25) That Obama’s administration will be looked at very badly by history which is unfortunate. I sincerely want the first black and woman president’s to be successes so the country can be proud that people of any race, sex, creed or whatever can be president and run this country well. Unfortunately, Obama’s administration will not be looked at this way. It will be largely a failure and there will be implication if not evidence of major corruption and fraud had gone wild during his administration. That his economic policies will be seen as severely flawed in history.
I believe these have mostly been proved right and a few remain to be proved but NONE are proved wrong.
I did not predict
1) That the deep state was so complicit in the attempt to remove Trump and so many players in the FBI and other agencies were involved. I am deeply saddened by this. That our government has become so deeply politicized and so aggressive and blatant in their bias is shocking. That the corruption of our politicians was so great.
2) That N Korea would cave
3) That Trump would eradicate ISIS from Iraq and Syria in 10 months.
4) That it would take so long to get the wall built
5) I don’t remember if I predicted that health care reform would be done last year but I believed that ultimately Trump would prevail on health care.
6) That the legislators had a $20 million + fund to hush up and pay off women they abused
7) That Hillary would have paid for the Steele dossier and that she owned the DNC, that Hillary would conspire to overthrow an elected president
8) That democrats would actually subvert our democracy so purposely as in the call for electors to change votes and to call for impeachment without cause. These things would destroy our democracy beyond recognition and democrats seem oblivious they were calling to destroy the country.
Why have I been able to see through the haze created by the liberal propaganda machines? Is it listening to FOX?
These are opinions I have gained by logical analysis of the actual facts. The facts on the ground.
Liberals tend to think in emotional terms. This is a serious problem especially because they are mentally damaged by their lies. When you lie to yourself you can’t predict the future because you aren’t looking at reality. It is hard enough even when you are looking at reality to predict. It is impossible if you deceive yourself constantly with bizarre made up ideas.
It was obvious to me looking at the actual results of the economy over the last 10 years what would happen both to people and to the election. It is normal frankly.
It is obvious to me some corruption was happening in our government but I have to admit I had no idea how extensive it was.
I am quite certain I understand why DT was elected, have a better idea of who he is and what he intends to do and why than 90% of people out there.
In many cases my predictions are based on mathematics and logic. I call this blog logiclogiclogic for a reason. I try to be objective and look at facts.
I look at economic facts and these have real consequences. When growth underperforms for 8 years under Obama this has real consequences on people. Lots of people lose jobs, anxiety rises.
When Hillary has 100 meetings with people who give to her foundation when she is head of the state department there has to be several cases at least of pay for play.
When you see biased behavior by people like Clapper and Brennan it is quite clear that something is afoot.
Example of how my thinking goes
Let’s look at China and trade.
China has been aggressive trader since roughly 1999. They learned capitalism from Hong Kong which practiced a ruthless form of capitalism. When Hong Kong’s lease was up in 1999 there was confusion in Hong Kong if the Chinese communist government would assert communist economics on the free region or let it continue to exist.
China instead decided to do something that was surprising to even me. It copied Hong Kong. The result has been the 1.2 billion people living in abject poverty amongst the poorest people in the world started to rise in income dramatically. At first mainly in a couple small groups of people but then growing as they industrialized the country.
One cannot fault China for trying to bring its people from poverty. 500 years ago China was one of the richest if not the richest country in the world. Steadily over 500 years China became a smaller and smaller fraction of the world’s economy. Suddenly this reversed with the introduction of capitalism ala Hong Kong.
The world facilitated China’s growth through giving leniency to tactics they used in trade. Allowing China to use child labor, slave labor, to have brutal working conditions the world selfishly but also generously allowed China to grow ruthlessly.
The practices that China uses in trade are not free market. They are predatory. Everyone learns in economics that unfair trading practices are things like this:
1) Using externalities (like pollution controls lower than other countries) to produce goods or services at lower cost at the expense of the environment
2) Using labor techniques that other countries cannot morally replicate
3) Stealing IP from other countries depriving them of the rents for their intellectual advances.
4) Manipulating the currency to provide favorable currency rates for trade
5) Using government power to subsidize corporate power giving corporations virtually unlimited credit and ability to defeat any competitive extra-national corporation.
6) Engaging in buying practices which deny fair trade
The idea of a fair trading system is that countries rise or fall based on their ability to produce goods and humans natural tendencies of competition are funneled into productive activities like competing on business not in war.
This is a very important part of world peace. I have noticed that it is more likely for communist countries to hate each other and war with each other than it is for capitalist countries to war with each other or to war with any other country. When countries have strong economic ties to each other they are less likely to go to war.
Capitalism is thus more peaceful than socialism or communism or feudalist societies. This is because businessmen ultimately are more interested in bucks than war and conquering. As bad a some people think capitalism is it is more peaceful. I think that is absolutely proven and true. I would argue that point with anyone.
China is not a very warring country. Over the last 50 years or so it has not engaged in war with countries that are insulting it. The fact that Hong Kong and Britain was able to maintain a lease on Hong Kong for the 99 years promised is amazing. The fact Taiwan exists is amazing. China is not an aggressive country that seeks to dominate other people. They are insular much like Japan in many ways. I think it would take a huge amount for China to actually go to war with any country.
China is engaging in all the practices listed above that are bad for free trade. If you watch the show “Rotten” on Netflix for instance you will find the sliver of the sliver of the ways in which China actively subverts efforts by all countries to engage in free and open trade. The fact is China doesn’t know how to engage in free trade.
The world and the US in particular must teach it. China is good at bribery and various non-violent forms of persuasion. This is kind of a feudalistic practice of non-transparent black market type trading. China bribes people and countries to get them open to its unfair trading practices because the people in those countries suffer but certain leadership benefits and imposes Chinese practices or goes along.
Over the last 20 years as China has grown amazingly it has taken on some imbalances. It has been remarkably good at keeping those imbalances from driving the country into recession but a large part of that has simply been the depths of the poverty that China was in. The gross inefficiencies of some parts of their country could be subsidized by the sheer incredible advantages in labor and other trading practices it employed.
Nonetheless China has gained a 300% Debt/GDP ratio. It has done this to maintain the growth but it is teetering now. 300% debt is essentially at the high end of the entire world and represents 3 times the US debt of close to 100% of debt/GDP.
China is in a situation also where their exports especially to the US are precariously unbalanced. We export $60 B to China and it exports $400 B to us.
If the US got into a trade war with China China would lose because they export 6 times as much as we do to them we are in a position to impose 6 times as much power in our tarrifs. Further, our overall trade is massive and a drop of $10 or $20 billion would not impact the US economy 0.1%. However, a drop of $100 billion in trade for China would put 50 to 100 million Chinese out of work.
Thus for all the discussion on liberal networks about the “horror of a trade war” the fact is China cannot afford to engage in any trade wars with the US and likely hardly anyone else.
If the US sticks to its guns the US has to win any trade war sooner or later and frankly the Chinese are not so stupid as to engage in this pointless war they know would imperil their country and all its plans.
What the US seeks is to bring China up to fair trading standards and to eliminate the 6 points I talked about above. To effectively teach China how to be good fair traders for the benefit of the ENTIRE WORLD not just the US.
China has to be taught this lesson and reform or the whole world will ultimately go to war. Unfair practices are effectively the same thing as war. It will result in war eventually if they don’t learn how to engage in fair trade.
I don’t believe China wants war. As I stated earlier China has clear intent to improve the lives of its citizens. We are all interested in that just not at the expense of our citizens. I strongly believe China has no choice but to engage the US in trade reforms and it will not go to war or even go to trade war. It will do this because the leaders are not irrational. They are interested in peaceful growth not military.
Some will point to their growing military etc. I predict China and the US can be great friends ultimately but we have great leverage at this time to make historic reforms critical to the success of the whole world. Thank god we have Donald Trump as President who has seen this clearly and not Democrats.
Why? Democrats never believed in free trade. They were the party of unions. They only got free trade after Ronald Reagan pushed it in his terms. Democrats adopted this free trade idea late and like the Chinese to some extent learned it wrongly. They have been bribed by billionaires and globalists who see the people as not the ultimate beneficiaries of trade but as the chattal to trade and the slaves to move from place to place and use against each other. The Democratic Party has become corrupt feudalist. They have no clue what is right or wrong just what money buys them in political power.