48:  Inconvenient Truth:  2015 wasn’t the hottest year on record

The NYtimes and every other outlet posted the story from Hansen and Mann that the temperature of 2015 was the hottest ever.   This is simply wrong.

  1. 1930s were hotter
  2. 1998 was hotter, 2010 was hotter
  3. The MWP was warmer
  4. The Holocene optimum was warmer

Here is what the record looks like from 14 satellites circling the globe constantly.

figure-2-tlt-annual

First, there is NO BETTER evidence of the tampering of the climate record than this claim by the NYT above and Jim Hansen and Mann(Hockey stick deception).   Here is Hansen / Mann adjusted GISS temperature record:

figure-1-lost-comparison1

Here is a graph of UNADJUSTED Land records and Sea Surface temperatures from WoodforTrees a reliable source for data.

unadjusted recent temps

 

Notice it does not show 2015 as highest in recent history like the satellite record.   In fact amazingly the unadjusted record looks just like the satellite record above.  Isn’t that odd.   If you remove the Hansen/Mann adjustments you would think you would see almost any random graph NOT the satellite record!

It’s actually quite stunning how MUCH they’ve been willing to alter the record and nobody seems to complain.  Is it possible all our thermostats are SO wrong even less than 30 years ago?  That 1998 17 years ago is dramatically different than we measured at the time.  Wow.  You can’t deny the balls of the guys who put these adjustments in.  Maybe they just think nobody will remember all that flak about 15,000 people dying in heat waves in France and the temps here in the US during 1998.  Forget the obvious superiority of the 14 satellites which confirm each other and the radiosonde (weather balloons) which confirm the satellites.  What about the bizarre result that when you subtract out the “fixes” that Hansen and Mann have used the Unadjusted record reverts to the satellite record?

What about the 30s and 40s?

 

The 1930s in the US corresponded to a period of unprecedented heat.   The dust bowls of the 1930s have not been repeated in the southwest US.   The northwest passage has not opened up like in the 1930s and 40s and the number of high records set nor the severity of the heatwaves durations are nothing like the 1930s.   Heatwaves in the 30s specifically 1936 and 1938 in particular are noteworthy.   The duration of over 100 degree days in Wash DC hit 11.   The highest temp recorded in Wash DC of 116 was set and stands today as do many hottest records from the 30s and 40s.

Here is the temperature record going back without the Hansen/Mann adjustments.  Okay the 30 and 40s aren’t the absolute hottest but it looks reasonable given the history as we know it.   It also shows the well known at the time dip in temperatures during the 1945-1975 period.   This period was recognized as getting colder so much that scientists were suggesting we were going into another ice age.

figure-2-homogenizationusa

 

Here is Hansen and Manns ADJUSTED temp record to see the tampering they have done with adjustments:

figure-1-homogenizationgloballand

Wow, with these modifications to the record the 30s and 40s nearly disappear entirely as warm period at all!  Not only that the period between 1945-1975 which scientists thought presaged an ice age is now a flat temperature record.

Their balls are amazing

The temperature record above which is now the official temperature record of the world from NASA is dramatically different from the historical record not only in terms of the actual temperatures but also in terms of what was written contemporaneously and the events we know happened in these time periods.   The record invalidates the satellite record but also the radiosonde record and remarkably the sea record.

Lastly, a peer reviewed paper just issued that showed that if you take a subset of 411 of the 1200 or so thermostats in the Hansen / Mann GISS thermostats that are “perfect”, i.e. they need no adjustment because they are sited well, have no interruption in their reporting record and use good technology that is calibrated and reliable that the result from those stations by themselves is the same as the satellite record as well without adjustments (which theoretically they shouldn’t need.)   However, Hansen and Mann adjust the perfect thermostats almost as much as the imperfect thermostats resulting in elevating global warming by 0.35C above the perfect thermostats record.    The perfect thermostats also DO NOT show 2015 as the hottest year ever.

It seems clear that Hansen has manipulated the temperature record to an amazing extent. He has somehow managed to get adjustment algorithms into the GISS record which deflate the heat waves of the 30s and 40s down to a hardly noticeable level that makes one wonder how those dust bowls ever happened.  Simultaneously using the same adjustment process managed to process the temperature record to be +0.35C higher than the unadjusted thermostats show for this year.   Overall Hansen and Mann have INCREASED the global warming from about 0.5C for the last 115 years to 1.3C adding 0.8C to what we otherwise might have guessed.

Let’s look at even more detailed records to see how bizarre the Hansen / Mann results are:

Where are the record setting temperatures happening these people are getting so excited about?   As an example take a look at the NCDCs site for temperature records.  Looking at New Mexico in July 1936 there were 51 record high records set.   The temperatures in these records were from 102-110 degrees with 17 over 100 records set including  108 and 110.   If you look at July 2015 you can see for the same state that only 15 records were set and about 10 of them over 100 but none of those over 104. Take a look at 1937 in July in New Mexico.  50 high records set.  24 of them over 100 degrees and most of them higher than the temps of 2015.   This is just one month in one state but something fishy is going on.  Where are the records?   Where is the heat waves that you would expect?   This just confirms what the data says.   The 1930s and 40s were hotter than today.   The CO2 level was also below 300, 30% below todays.

You want another damning chart to show you how hot the 30s and 40s were.  Here is the arctic:

 

arctic_temp_trends_rt

This chart shows the 30s and 40s were hotter than any period in 120 years.  This is consistent with the lack of arctic ice that allowed ships to pass the northern passage. Something still not done today with Hansen and Manns fabricated warm spell.

Summary

I believe the UNADJUSTED records for the 1930s and 40s BECAUSE there is factual data in news stories, corroborating information like the existence of dustbowls that makes me feel certain this was a hot period at least as hot as today.  There are records set, heatwave duration records set.   I am not going to swallow Hansen and Manns ADJUSTMENTS without this type of factual corroborating information that backs it up.   Also, what kills Hansen and Manns adjustments for me is the divergence with satellites.

The satellites have something to say because there are 14 of them that cross check each other.   Thermostats never have 2 or 3 in a specific location that can be used.   Microclimates mean that thermostats are getting data that is highly variable.  Satellites measure entire volumes of air consistently across the globe.   They are not subject to urban heat island effects and they use radiosonodes (weather balloons) to confirm the satellite results.  So, the satellite record is more reliable in EVERY WAY than thermostats and with Hansen and Manns adjustment algorithms tampering with the record as significantly as they do it puts a great deal of doubt into those algorithms.

The fact that UNADJUSTED records correlate with satellite records pretty much puts the nail in the coffin for me.   Something is wrong with the adjustments that when you take them out the data looks like satellite data.  That just is too coincidental to be an accident.  If the adjustments were valid I would expect removing them would either create a hodgepodge of record that wouldn’t look like anything else or very little modification from the record after adjustments.   With so much data one would guess that the adjustments would as likely raise or lower temps so that overall the change would be near zero.   The fact removing the adjustments makes the record look like the satellite record is what I would expect if the adjustments were bogus.

I realize that they will argue that some of the adjustments are sensible and surely they are but there is a general well known problem in science with what is called “experimenters bias” which is that they seek reasons why their preconceived ideas are valid.  It has been known for a century or more that you need to do double-blind studies in medicine for instance because researchers will always consciously or unconsciously find a way to interpret or modify data to make it appear like the results they hope for happens.  The fact that some adjustments would be to increase temperatures is not unexpected but when every adjustment pushes temperatures up or down that is improbable.  A study recently of adjustments to the climate record showed the probability that the 30+ adjustments would all be in one direction was 1 in a billion.  That is essentially proof they are fudging the records.   Whether it is subconscious or not 30+ adjustments all in one direction says that something is seriously wrong with these adjustments.  They are either missing downward adjustments, inventing or overestimating upward adjustments or just completely doing it wrong.  The homogenization algorithm has been shown to spread the heat from warming cities around the Earth much wider than is appropriate.  As cities have gotten bigger and warmer in the last 30 years the adjustments keep getting larger.   A recent study suggested that the adjustments keep going up in a manner that seems to mimic the growth of cities and CO2 output.  Sure, CO2 output may increase the temperature but it shouldn’t increase the adjustments.     Increasing the adjustments too would be double counting.  What do you know.  The adjustments double the heat.  What a coincidence.

It’s been hotter in the recent past (The Holocene) quite a few times when CO2 was 40% below todays level

Why are we fixating on the 30s vs today.   In the MWP during the period 950-1100AD the Vikings were occupying and growing food, harvesting wine grapes to make wine from on land that today is covered with permafrost!

ALERT:   CHART BELOW IS FALSE

This chart has the same problem the hockey stick from Mann and IPCC FAR that created the scandal of climategate

Moberg_Hockey_Stick

This chart represents a deceit.   Patching together smoothed data with instantaneous data makes the most recent period look extreme.  We don’t know what individual year or decades look like during these past periods.  It’s not comparable to splice these two data together anymore than it was appropriate in the Hockey stick fiasco to fit together tree data and other data.

We are comparing data on a single year or decade today from instantaneous data sources to historical records based on ice boreholes that show no detail or peak temperature history.  In essence the historical record for the MWP above is a smoothed record which by definition removes outlying years.  The end of this graph is pasted wth instantaneous data which would show more volatility.    So this graph above is deceptive because there are two different types of data with different characteristics being presented.

WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW IF INDIVIDUAL DECADES OR YEARS IN THE 950-1100 AD PERIOD HAD TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS TODAY

What we know is that over several centuries warmer temperatures allowed the permafrost that existed prior to 950AD and exists today to melt and for the Vikings to occupy and colonize Greenland.   What we have today is a short time period of a dozen or so years that look hotter than back then but if you smooth the temperature record over 50 or 100 years today doesn’t look so hot and the MWP probably exceeded todays temperatures.  It is also interesting that CO2 was around 270 then, lower than the 1945 CO2 level.   So, whatever caused this hot period wasn’t CO2.  Scientists have no idea why that period was warmer nor other periods in the last 5,000 years because they have no other significant means to have temperatures go higher for more than a very short time.

To me and many others it is simply not proven fact that today is warmer than the MWP.  There is not sufficient quality of data to make that assertion.   The IPCC says there is a greater than 50% probability today is hotter than anytime in the last 1400 years.  That means it could have been hotter and even more telling they really have no reason to explain why or how it could have gotten even close to todays temperatures without CO2 being much higher.  So, something is missing, something big is missing from the analysis that they refuse to really acknowledge.

Why fixate on the MWP.  There are several other times in the last 5,000 years where temps exceeded todays culminating in 5,000 years ago during a period called the Holocene optimum where temperatures were higher than the MWP and higher than today.  This longer period certainly has periods when temperatures were warmer than today as well.

300px-Holocene_Temperature_Variations

5,000 years ago man found it pleasant enough to give up nomadic hunting and gathering to begin agriculture.  In order to do that man needed consistent weather that could produce crops.    It was nice enough then for man to settle down.  It was a good time.  This year was good too.  It is hard to get worked up about temperatures which are hysterically referred to as “hot” when they are simply warmer than the last few decades by a small amount less than a degree.   It should be pointed out that CO2 levels then were also in the 270 range which is 40% less than todays CO2 level and temperatures still exceeded todays for centuries.

I suggest you sit back and enjoy the good weather.   It is far better than the alternative which is colder weather.   I know for me this year was the first year in a while that we had a decent summer where there were some nice stretches of warm weather to go to the beach or hang out in the pool.   I even got a sunburn one day this summer.     For the last few years while Hansen and Mann have been declaring record setting dangerous high temperatures we’ve been having summers with practically no summer.  2 years ago we had maybe one week late in the year that temps got hot enough to say we were in summer.  The temps in the SF Bay area have been nowhere near hot and don’t match the temps I remember from the 80s when I moved to California.  I simply don’t see it.  The records confirm this.  The Bay area shows virtually no warming over even an extended period of time.   (Unadjusted records that is)

This is part of my “reference article on 50+ CLimate Science failures and deceptions.”

For more Climate deceptions or Failures go to:

https://logiclogiclogic.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/failures-of-global-warming-models-and-climate-scientists/

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